A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
