Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Several figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any potential leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
