Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Fall of Open-Play Goal Scoring
A major talking point of the EPL season so far is the decline of goals scored in open-play scenarios and the way sides have been scoring increasingly from dead-ball situations instead.
Looking at goal sources to the initial 11 matches last season, we note a drop of 39 goals in open-play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and penalties, giving us 13 less in total.
Considering the bigger picture, efforts on goal sides are producing reveal an incredible 370 fewer in open-play than this time previously.
Regardless of the significant rise in dead-ball scores, records show just two more attempts generated from them outside of spot-kicks, showing how effective sides are at devising strategies to score from dead-ball situations.
Scoring Rates Show a Story
Over 300 goals notched in 110 games up to now calculates at 2.74 goals per game, if maintained for the entire campaign might be the smallest for half a decade, from five seasons ago (2.69).
But just 196 scores coming in open-play averages out 1.78 per fixture and is heading to be the least for 16 years, back in 2009-10 (1.76).
The 2009-10 season also marks the sole English top-flight campaign to see scoring more often from set-plays excluding penalties than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per game (0.79).
Which Sides Account for This Change?
Regarding scoring from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have seen the most significant decrease, scoring only four in 11 matches, 10 less than at this stage last season.
Apart from Wolverhampton, the Premier League's fall in open-play scoring is largely a London thing, with five of the city's seven teams scoring five or more goals fewer from open-play than last season.
To be fair, that's largely down to their scoring many scores at the beginning of last season instead of them really struggling to convert in open-play this season.
Meanwhile Man City have experienced the most significant jump, with nearly all of their 23 goals to date arriving in open play.
Dead-Ball Dominance
Looking at clubs that came up with those that were relegated they took the place of. Play-off winners Sunderland have netted three extra scores in open-play than Southampton did in matchday 11 on their way to relegation last season.
Regarding goals scored from dead-ball situations (excluding spot-kicks), Arsenal and the Blues have experienced the largest rise, with the two clubs making up for the five less goals that they've netted in open play with identical figures from set-pieces.
United have recorded twice as many goals from set-pieces as they managed in the 11 games last season ahead of the manager assumed control, while the Black Cats again are more effective at scoring than the club they replaced that went down.
City appear not to have received the message about scoring more from set-pieces, since they've netted a reduction of three than the previous campaign, like Forest, though this may result from the altered approach they're working to install.
Overall Patterns
Six clubs – the Gunners, the Blues, the Cottagers, Newcastle, Tottenham and the Hammers – are this term's leading trend-followers by recording fewer scores from open play and increased from set-pieces, while Man City are the unique club to buck the trend up to now by performing the exact opposite.
It will be interesting to watch if clubs continue to rely so heavily on set-pieces as matches continue or if they regain their overall inventiveness and begin converting increased totals in open-play too.
